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College Hoops

Wise Guy plays…

INDIANA –6 Northwestern

With the small number it is worth noting that Indiana is 23-0 SU in the series and 53-3 since 1969. High on the list of why I win more than anyone else is exploiting deceptive records which both of these teams have and in both cases favoring the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers 11 non-conference opponents have a combined record of 92-34 SU for a .730 winning percentage. Their five losses came to teams with combined records of 53-6. Their schedule is ranked the second toughest of 324 Division I teams and where most big conference teams pad their schedule early, Indiana has played just two games at Assembly Hall. I would say they are more than ready for one of their easiest road games of the year.

Northwestern’s seemingly decent 8-3 SU mark versus teams with combined records of 44-68 including powerhouses like Chicago State, Florida A&M; and Liberty who are a combined 2-27.

Even worse is that two key players for the Wildcats will be limited. Freshman Vedrans Vukusic who leads the conference is three-point shooting and another key starter Jason Burke is hurt. That is two of their best post players against and Indiana team that has three solid contributors in the 6-11 range. Vukusic in addition to ankle and shoulder injuries is admittedly lacking in the cardiovascular department because he missed four games. That’s bad news in a game in which NWN could use about 35-minutes from him.

Indiana completely dominates in the paint.

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS –7 Evansville

Two killer systems apply here:

--Road favorites of 6’-12 points with winning records against teams with losing records are 196-130ATS.

--Road favorites of 6’-12 points off a win as a road dog are 23-9 ATS

Furthermore SIU star forward a former Indiana high school all-star has always played his best versus Indiana college teams. That’s not good for Evansville an overmatched team playing an inspired guy who is among the conference leaders in points and rebounds.

SW MISSOURI STATE –2’ St. Louis

SWMO record is incredibly deceptive for two major reasons. First of all they have lost an incredible four OT games and they lost 4/5 without leading scorer Scott Brakewell who returned to the line-up December 30 in a game in which SWMO showed no signs of frustration from so many close losses. Of course getting back you best player can give a team a lift to say the least.

Furthermore Brakewell’s presence opens it up for a balanced team that has three of his teammates averaging in double-figure scoring.

Majors KENT…

VILLANOVA –5 Providence

The Friars head to the road already with four losses. ‘Nova has in the past been bothered by the defensive efforts of Philly boy John Lineham, but now they have guys not guarded by him or are capable of bringing the ball up the court.

While that neutralizes the Friar backcourt edge, host Villanova will dominate inside led by Ricky Wright who has not missed a shot in his last two games. PC has struggled with big men this year and this is as tough of a test as any in the paint.

The Wildcats outrebound foes by double digits and PC can only counter inside with raw soph Marcus Douthit, more still wet behind the ears freshman Ryan Gomes and gimpy sophomore Maris Laksa who we think is the same guy from Taxi.

GEORGETOWN –2’ Miami-FL

Hoyas are the most talented team in the Big East but their power rating is lower than it should be because G-Town struggled in the uncharted waters of actually playing a quality non-conference schedule. Don’t underestimate how difficult that is for Craig Esherick who of course was John Thompson’s right hand man since well about the last 88 years. After treating the pre-conference schedule as mere tune-ups they did go 1-3 in their new territory.

But for once they are tested for this tough game. In the losses to Virginia and UCLA though, Georgetown did show some resilience by erasing huge deficits and making games out of them.

The loss of UCLA had a lot to do with the tentative play of Wesley Wilson who was playing in front of friends and relatives from the Bay area. Considering he played so well prior to that game we look for a huge game at home from him.

This is a tough game for Miami, which begins a four-game ten-day road trip.

PITTSBURGH –5’ St. John’s

Mike Jarvis is still searching for the right combination having used nine different starters this year. This lack of continuity showed in a 17-point loss to Manhattan. True Pitt has played a beefcake schedule but did beat Ohio State on the road.

Pitt allows only 54.2 ppg.

MINNESOTA +16’ Illinois

How much of a home-court advantage will Illinois have here? The rowdy students are still on Christmas break and the rest of the fans are returning from the Sugar Bowl last night. The latter did effect their Saturday night crowd.

The Gophers will keep it close because of their height advantage inside with 6-11 Jeff Hagen, 6-10 Jerry Holman and 6-10 Rick Rickert. Illinois has not gotten continuity because of injuries and the fact that big man Lucas Johnson is out will hurt them mightily tonight. Also Robert Archibald and Damir Krupalua will also be limited by injuries.

ARKANSAS +9 Memphis

This is a young Memphis team with just one win against a team in the top-100 of the RPI Index. Meanwhile the Razorbacks record is very deceptive as they have four losses to ranked teams—three currently in the Top-10. They will be more than ready for a Memphis team who is still a team on the upside but not there yet.

Despite the difficult schedule, Arkansas forces an impressive 22.9 turnovers a game and faces a team that has 207 assists and 200 turnovers, not an impressive ratio.

Furthermore, Nolan Richardson has lost a lot of ground recruiting in Tennessee, thus a good effort is imperative here.

UCONN –7’ Virginia Tech

Tech has the students on break so it will be a quiet home-court advantage. Plus their remaining fans are returning from the Gator Bowl. The Hokies leading scorer and only three-point threat missed the last four games and will be limited tonight as he is rushed back. Versus a Connecticut team that will run tonight, that stress fracture will hurt.

Jim Calhoun not really known for heaping praise on his team is emphatic that they are better than they’ve shown and the Huskies are in need of a road win badly. For the many reason stated they get one by double-digits.

PURDUE –1 Ohio State

OSU has not won yet on the road and have struggled with turnovers, not good in playing a tough road game versus a conference foe.

Big man John Allison is only averaging 11 touches for the Boilermakers and Gene Keady wants to increase that to about 20. Versus an overmatched Velimir Radinovic who like the Buckeyes is a “work in progress” Allison will have a huge game tonight.

Ohio State has struggled in crunch time—not good when the oddsmakers tell you the game will be close. They had three field goals in the final 10-plus minutes to Louisville and five points in the final 5:00 to Pittsburgh.

As we are pressed on time here are the NBA plays all Majors…

MEMPHIS, DALLAS and PHOENIX

CFB

Major…

Maryland-Florida UNDER 56

Pretty much to a man every member of the Gators defensive unit feels this is redemption for embarrassing themselves against Tennessee. In fact, defense coordinator Jon Hoke made sure his unit suffered through the game film a few times while chewing their rear ends off.

Remember in the first nine games of the year, the Gators allowed only 12 points per game and 85 yards rushing. They were ranked number one in the country. As the Gators played their worst defense in their last two games, remember what we had been telling you, the best thing to happen to a slumping unit is to have about a month off.

The worst thing for a unit (or team) that is on fire is to have time off. Maryland offense did everything right and more than exceeded the expectations of everyone. But Cinderella didn’t need take off for four weeks.

Overlooked is that former coach Ron Vanderlinden actually left a nice defensive unit. Maryland’s offense reminds me a lot of well, Georgia Tech’s offense of last year, which just so happened to be coached by Ralph Friedgen who is now the big boss at Maryland.

Last year everything went right in the regular season for his offensive unit, which overachieved and was in a groove all year. After the long layoff his Yellow Jackets clearly could not continue their overachieving. We look for the same thing here, but to also see the underrated Terrapin defense rise to the occasion.

Lunch money…

FLORIDA –14 Maryland

The Maryland players have not exactly taken this game very seriously. At least two unnamed players were late for a meeting, another missed a team bus. RB Marc Riley stated, “I think that we overstepped our boundaries to have fun and it carried over to practice.”

Melvin Fowler said this close to game time, Maryland has not looked sharp at all in practice.

Oh we are very aware of the Florida situation including where Rex Grossman will not start, but love him or hate him, Steve Spurrier can find a way to use this to motivate his players. Plus with the Gators depth, the fact that both teams may be enjoying the nightlife too much would certainly benefit the Gators.

To top it all off, the Terps will probably be without two key starters Todd Wike and safety Tony Jackson.

The last thing the Terps want to do is light a fire under the Gators. Too late. Linebacker EJ Henderson essentially said that the Gators wide receivers won’t that good and that Maryland’s DB’s were every bit as good, etc. Caldwell and Gaffney have said it’s a little extra motivation to blow out Maryland.

The worst thing that a team that played above its head all year needs is a long break, but that is what of course happens in bowls. This reminds me of about 10 years ago, when West Virginia was one of the great Cinderella teams, before getting their heads handed to them on New Years day. Their opponent happened to be Florida.

We told you about how the offense would light up the scoreboard, so how about the Florida defense.

Pretty much to a man every member of the Gators defensive unit feels this is redemption for embarrassing themselves against Tennessee. In fact, defense coordinator Jon Hoke made sure his unit suffered through the game film a few times while chewing their rear ends off.

Remember in the first nine games of the year, the Gators allowed only 12 points per game and 85 yards rushing. They were ranked number one in the country. As the Gators played their worst defense in their last two games, remember what we had been telling you, the best thing to happen to a slumping unit is to have about a month off.