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Marlins @ Royals | Kauffmann Stadium | 8:05 p.m.
A. Burnett (6-5, 3.39), J. Suppan (5-5, 4.68)

The Marlins send Burnett and his 6-5 record, 3.39 ERA and 1.24 WHIP to the hill to face Jeff Suppan with his 5-5 record 4.68 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Burnett has pitched well his last 3 outings giving up 7 ER in 21 innings worked including a complete game 6 hitter against Philadelphia last time out, in which he won 2-1. Suppan on the other hand has struggled his last 3 outings with an ERA of 7.31 and a WHIP of 1.69. Suppan has given up 23 hits in his last 16 innings of work and opponents are hitting .327 in those past 3 games and .246 overall when Suppan starts at home. Burnett meanwhile is allowing just a .204 BA in games he starts on the road and is also 4-0 with 3.13 ERA his last 5 inter- league starts.

Florida is 5-5 their past 10 hitting .275 and have an ERA of 4.65. Kansas City is 4-6 while hitting just .220 and have an ERA of 5.62. Florida is just 7-13 in the opening game of a series but are a better 6-9 when coming off a win. KC meanwhile is 9-11 in game 1 of a series but just 1-6 when the team is playing game 1 off a win. Florida is one of the better teams in inter-league play over the years as they are 56-38 the past three years against the A.L. KC is on the other end of the spectrum when playing N.L. teams as they are just 38-50 in inter-league games.

With the recent form favoring Burnett when examining the pitching match up as well as the fact that Burnett on road has matched Suppan's consistency at home it looks like the value lays with the road team in this contest. Florida also has the better the bullpen overall and have been excellent the last little while with and ERA of just 2.39 their past 3 and 3.27 overall compared to KC’s 5.31 ERA in the bullpen overall this season and 6.09 the past 3 games.

Recommendation Florida -115